Russian Invasion of Georgia - Update 2

UPDATE 2

August 9, 5:00 pm EST

New Developments

• The last 48 hours military forces of the Russian Federation launched combined air and ground attacks on Georgian territory. This act of aggression is tantamount to an invasion and declaration of war against Georgia and comes at a time when Georgia has been trying to integrate itself with Euro-Atlantic institutions and strengthen its democracy and free market economy.
• A Russian Black Sea warfleet consisting of 11 ships is deploying to the Georgian coast off Abkhazia, another breakaway region of Georgia, on a “humanitarian” mission. This represents another dangerous escalation in their war on Georgia and threatens to cut off Georgian shipping.
• Polish, Estonian, Latvian and Lithuanian Presidents condemn Russian aggression in a joint statement. “We regret that not granting of the NATO’s Membership Action Plan (MAP) to Georgia was seen as a green light for agression in the region.” http://georgiandaily.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=5572&Itemid=65
• The Georgian Parliament issued an appeal to those living in South Ossetia to refrain from violence and repeated the Georgian peace offer guaranteeing full constitutional and political rights as well as—in what President Saakashvili has termed—“the widest possible political autonomy.”
• Cyber attacks from Russia have interrupted Georgian government and news web sites.
• Presidential candidates John McCain (R) and Barak Obama (D) have issued separate statements calling for an end to the violence and for U.N. Security Council action. McCain demanded that Russia "withdraw all forces from sovereign Georgian territory"; Obama said Georgian territorial
  integrity "must be respected." http://www.johnmccain.com/Informing/News/PressReleases/Read.aspx?guid=51381e1f-4df8-4cca-9f1d-4669d15a0eb4

http://www.barackobama.com/2008/08/08/statement_from_barack_obama_on.php

• President Saakashvili again appeals for a cease fire to stop the bloodshed.
• Russian Prime Minister Putin is in North Ossetia in Russian territory in a gesture designed to further inflame tensions. His visit is viewed as providing political cover for Russian propaganda depicting Russian actions as protecting minorities and Russian citizens.”

Russian Attacks

• Russia is targeting Georgian economic and civilian infrastructure including the port at Poti, the BP energy pipeline, and other key facilities.
• Ground attacks by Russian and South Ossetian military forces have taken place in Tskhinvali while Russian air strikes on Georgian villages include Bolnisi, Gori, Marneuli, Oni, and Vaziani continue.
• The Georgian air base at Marneuli and Vaziani located just outside the capital of Tblisi has sustained heavy damage from Russian strikes that have killed Georgian military personnel as well as civilians and destroyed Georgian military aircraft.
• Russian military infantry and tank forces continue to pour into South Ossetia from Russia. This includes Russian special forces units as well as “paramilitary volunteers.”
• By the numbers:
• 60 Soviet sorties
  against Georgian positions
• 250 bombs dropped
• 10 Russian aircraft damaged/destroyed
• 2 Russian pilots captured (Note: Are being treated in full accordance with the Geneva Convention)

Abkhaz “Second Front”? UN Mission asked to Withdraw by Russian Supported Abkhaz Regime

• According to a Russian news agency report secessionist Abkhaz authorities supported by Russia have stated they are “going to conduct special operations in Kodori” and have asked the UN observer mission to withdraw from this area. The threat combined with offshore naval support from Russian warships holds the potential for dramatically escalating the war.

Georgian Peace Efforts

• Following the initial attack by Russian-South Ossetian forces and an exchange of fire, President Saakashvili ordered Georgian forces to not respond to the hostile fire in an attempt to contain the conflict. However, as shelling intensified against Georgian villages and civilian deaths mounted, he was forced to order defensive strikes to prevent additional civilian casualties and deaths.
• Saakashvili has ordered Georgian forces back from areas around the South Ossetian town of Tskhinvali.
• The “Safe Corridor” for civilians in the conflict zone between Georgia and South Ossetia remains open and is being used by refugees fleeing the Russian attacks.
• Georgia is asking for an immediate cease fire, an international peacekeeping forces that can be deployed in the conflict zone, and the pullout from Georgian territory of all Russian forces.

Diplomatic Actions

• President Bush has called for an end to the fighting and the pullback of all Russian forces and “respect for Georgian sovereignty.” http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2008/08/20080809-2.html
• The UNSC was unable to come to an agreement to stop the fighting. Another session of the UNSC is scheduled for today but with Russia’s ability to veto any resolution it is uncertain that any concrete decisions to settle the conflict will be achieved.
• A delegation of EU and OSCE diplomats are scheduled to arrive in Tbilisi late Saturday (if the airport is not closed due to Russian bombings and attacks) for peace talks. That delegation will include EU special representative to Georgia Peter Semneby, special representative to the South Caucasus Heikki Talvitie and a representative of France, which is currently chairing the EU.

Previous Russian Military Action During the Past Year

• The attacks now taking place follow an ongoing series of hostile Russian acts of military aggression that since October 2006 have included Russian bombings of Georgian villages in Kodori (October 2006 and March 2007), and a subsequent bombing of a village in South Ossetia (August 2007). Just two months ago a Russian fighter shot down an unarmed, Georgian observation drone flying a reconnaissance mission over Abkhazia—sovereign Georgian territory and a direct violation of the UN cease-fire agreement. Moreover, during this period Russian forces have provoked Georgian police and other units monitoring the conflict line between both South Ossetia and Abkhazia in an effort to increase tensions and create armed conflict.

Why and What Drives Russian Actions

• The Georgian people are dedicated to establishing a democratic society based on individual freedoms, human rights, freedom of speech and the rule of law. The Georgian people are set on an unalterable course for joining western institututions that include the European Union and NATO. These member states share the values Georgians’ cherish—and Russia views this as a threat.
• Read Vladimir Socor’s piece on Russian motivations, The Goals Behind Moscow’s Proxy Offensive in South Ossetia, http://jamestown.org/edm/
• Read Richard Holbroke’s prescient piece Putin Tries to Depose a Neighbor, November 27,
  2006. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/08/08/AR2008080803336.html?hpid=opinionsbox1